C.H. Robinson (CHRW) · companion to the research dashboard
The cycle, the share price, and the decision
Monthly closes Jan-2019 to Sep-2026 (IBKR). Background colour is the freight-cycle phase, judged from Robinson's own truckload price-vs-cost disclosures in the Goldman Sachs model. Grey = bust and bottom (A). Amber = squeeze (B). Green = catch-up or re-rating (C). Red = top (D). Prepared 24 Sep 2026.
The loop, A to E, and what each step did to the stock
A · Bottom
Too many trucks, rates below cost, truckers fail. Robinson's profit at a low. P/E looks high.
Stock bottoms · Apr-24 $65
NOW
B · Squeeze
Trucks scarce, spot up 35%. Costs rise faster than contract prices. Margin 14.8% → 13.1%.
Stock stalls · $141–157
C · Catch-up
Spot plateaus, annual contracts reset +10–15%. Gap re-opens, profit jumps on a fixed cost base.
Stock runs · 2H21: +25%
D · Top
New trucks arrive, spot falls below contract. Widest gap, record profit. P/E looks cheapest.
Two things that could stop B turning into C this time
The court case$604M Dallas verdict (23 Jul 2026) awaiting the judge's decision on entry, then appeal. Insurance renewal early 2027. If costs jump or the judgment stands, part of the step-C profit is eaten before it arrives.
The cost cutsRobinson runs with 35% fewer people than last cycle (11,471 vs 17,717). If it must rehire to handle step-C volume, the profit jump shrinks. Last cycle (2021–22) it added ~2,600 heads.
The decision, laid out
If you buy now (~$150, before 4 Nov results)You are betting B turns into C on the normal timetable.
C arrives (~45%)Margin recovers, contracts reprice, no rehiring → $200–230 in 12–18 monthsC delayed (~35%)Insurance doubles, some rehiring, spread only partly recovers → $150–180, paid to waitC never comes (~20%)Spread stays compressed and/or verdict goes badly → $90–130
If you wait for proof (4 Nov or late Jan)You want to see margin tick up with headcount flat before committing.
Proof arrivesLikely entry $170–185; you give up roughly a third of the move but skip the worst branchPrint is muddledStill in B; nothing lost, wait for January guidanceProof failsMargin flat or heads rising → trap confirmed, you never owned it
Probabilities are a judgment from the source notes (UBS, Jefferies, GS, Bernstein, MS, TD Cowen, AlphaSense), not published by any analyst. Valuation context: the stock trades at ~20.9x blended forward EPS, on its 5-year mean (Bloomberg bands 16.8x / 20.8x / 24.9x), so the return from here has to come from earnings revisions, not a cheap multiple.
What to check on 4 November
1. NAST gross marginAbove 13.1% sequentially. Even 13.3% counts.
2. HeadcountFlat or down vs 11,471.
3. TL profit per loadFlat or up year over year.
4. Volume vs Cass14th straight quarter of beating the market.
5. Legal / insuranceNothing new that management cannot put a number on.
Four of five: the pattern is holding, B is turning into C. Two or fewer: the cost-and-multiple trap flagged in the GS model's Cyclical Check tab is springing.
Dates that matter
4 Nov 2026
3Q results. First read on the five checks above. Consensus ~$1.64–1.72.
Any day
Dallas judge rules on entering the $604M verdict. Unscheduled binary.
Oct–Dec 2026
Contract bid season. The mechanism that moves B to C. Watch DAT contract rates (was $2.42/mi in Aug).
Late Jan 2027
4Q results and first 2027 guidance. Margin guided flat on +10% revenue = pass-through growth, trap sprung. Margin holding on flat heads = thesis intact.